Florida Primary Blog: Post-Mortem
10 very long days ago, I made three predictions regarding the Florida Primary: 1. Rick Santorum would benefit from the Romney-Gingrich scrum and finish strong. 2. Mitt Romney was in serious trouble. 3. Newt Gingrich would finish with between 23 and 43 percent of the vote. .333 is a great batting average in baseball, but not so great in prognosticating, especially when the correct guess had plenty of margin (though Newt did fall right in the middle of the range). What happened? Romney actually had enough money to "carpet bomb" Florida. One of my assumptions was that the immense cost of saturating the state would mean even Romney would face limitations. Incorrect. He spent $17 million and it worked in three ways: First, much as when he went nuclear on Newt in Iowa, Romney managed to throw Gingrich completely off message, turning the Conservative Warrior of South Carolina into the Great Whiner of Florida. Second, while Santorum seemed like the comparative adult in the … [Read More...]
Florida Forecast: Santorum Sunshine State Surprise
If pundits can agree on anything it's that predicting the weather is easier than the 2012 Republican primary season. One debate took Mitt Romney from presumptive nominee to vulnerable candidate. He even managed to lose Iowa two weeks after he won it. If you can't even trust election night results, and Newt Gingrich can turn a 10 point deficit into a 12 point win in five days, what can you trust? Absolutely nothing. That won't stop … [More...]
Rush to Judgment: Newt’s Big Night
When the networks call your victory the minute the polls closed, you had a good night. When you were left for dead a week ago, you had a great night. Before the returns came in, I speculated that a narrow Gingrich win would not be the victory it seemed like, given his home-field advantage. It wasn't narrow. Newt finished well ahead of Mitt Romney and reached the 40% level. No other candidate has the distance between ceiling and floor that Newt possesses. Romney has not reached Gingrich's … [More...]
South Carolina Primary Blog: Final Prediction
January 21, 14:30 ET If the present trends hold (and I think they will), New Newt will defeat Angry Newt to win the South Carolina Primary, completing one of the more striking comebacks in recent political history (though only Newt's 2nd best comeback in the past six months). When the ballots are finally tallied, I suspect the end result will resemble this: Newt Gingrich 36% Mitt Romney 32% Rick Santorum 17% Ron Paul 15% Assuming Gingrich hangs on we will have gone from one … [More...]
Debate Recap: Newt Scores
Newt Gingrich entered tonight's Fox News Republican South Carolina Debate with lots of work to do. In football terms, he was down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a must-win game. After one of the best (possibly the best) debate performances of the endless season, he is now down one touchdown with about 7:00 to play. Romney is still the favorite, but Newt is in position to at least keep the newsfolk up late on Saturday if he can repeat his performance on Thursday. The Gingrich … [More...]
The Pauldoza Line
thanks to alpepper.tripod.com and ToppsThirty-plus years ago, when the Sunday paper was the easiest way to check baseball statistics, weak-hitting shortstop Mario Mendoza provided a convenient measure of futility. If a player sat below the Mendoza Line on the batting average chart, it was time to do some serious work with the hitting coach or look for another line of work. This concept works in plenty of non-baseball situations, and is often applied to politics, with an poor approval … [More...]
Florida Primary Blog: Fickle Florida
Recently: Crowded House Mitt Romney leads the latest Florida Rasmussen poll by 22 points (Romney 41, Gingrich 19). That's a healthy margin, more than he won virtual-home state New Hampshire by (16%). You would think this is an almost insurmountable lead. After all, Romney is the best financed candidate, has arguably the strongest field operation (with the possible exception of Ron Paul, at 9% in the same poll), plenty of endorsements and momentum. While Romney is still more likely to … [More...]
