Florida Primary Blog: Post-Mortem

10 very long days ago, I made three predictions regarding the Florida Primary:

1. Rick Santorum would benefit from the Romney-Gingrich scrum and finish strong.

2. Mitt Romney was in serious trouble.

3. Newt Gingrich would finish with between 23 and 43 percent of the vote.

.333 is a great batting average in baseball, but not so great in prognosticating, especially when the correct guess had plenty of margin (though Newt did fall right in the middle of the range). What happened?

Romney actually had enough money to “carpet bomb” Florida. One of my assumptions was that the immense cost of saturating the state would mean even Romney would face limitations. Incorrect. He spent $17 million and it worked in three ways:

First, much as when he went nuclear on Newt in Iowa, Romney managed to throw Gingrich completely off message, turning the Conservative Warrior of South Carolina into the Great Whiner of Florida.

Second, while Santorum seemed like the comparative adult in the room and may ultimately benefit, in the short run, he was completely overwhelmed by the attention given the other two. Part of this was strategic behavior on the part of the voters. For those determined to stop Romney, Gingrich’s lead over Santorum was large enough to make voting for the ex-Pennsylvania Senator a protest vote.

Meanwhile, Newt managed to alienate enough Floridians that the anybody-but-Gingrich contingent decided to throw in with Romney as Santorum wasn’t going to stop him. This quickly turned the primary into a two-man race, particularly with Ron Paul deciding to concentrate his time and money on upcoming caucuses. By the time Santorum performed well in the Thursday debate, it was already too late.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the combination of urgency (losing South Carolina) and momentum (Newt crumbled quickly) allowed Romney to fulfill the major requirement of perceived electability–debate combativeness. Where Gingrich used moderators as a prop to convince South Carolinians the was the man to take the fight to President Obama, Romney used Newt as his punching bag, allaying fears he would attempt to float through the fall on a sea of platitudes.

Both Romney and Gingrich are better with their backs against the wall. Each have a hard time with frontrunnerdom, but in a different way. In South Carolina, Romney attempted to run out the clock. While this was an understandable strategy, it plays directly into Romney’s weakness, making him seem tentative and calculating. Combined with constant comments from the pundit class about the Inevitable Mr. Mitt, this riles up the base and pushes them into Newt’s arms.

When Romney falls behind, he gets very aggressive in debates, proving this week that he can fillet Newt just as easily as the seemingly hapless Mr. Perry. The next couple weeks provide an interesting test for Romney. Each previous vanquishing was followed by a tack back toward General Election Romney, re-opening the contest in the process.

Will Romney go for the kill, attempting to neutralize Newt, once and for all, or will he let him back in again? You can almost make the argument it would be a mistake to finish him off too quickly (assuming Romney is capable), as this would push Santorum into the non-Romney position. Unlike Gingrich, Santorum has fairly solid support within the conservative establishment. Training the artillery on Rick might provoke an outcry from the Limbaugh-Palin wing of the party far in excess of what we have heard so far.

Meanwhile, Gingrich can’t handle prosperity. Yes, some of Romney’s (or his PAC’s) ads are unfair. Sofreakingwhat? Is David Axelrod going to play fair in the fall? Should he? If unemployment is still in the mid-upper 8% range, Team Obama is committing political malpractice if they don’t hit the Republican nominee with the kitchen sink and most of the plumbing. There is zero reason to think Obama would react to a Gingrich polling surge any differently than Romney is. If he can’t handle the Mittster…..

Gingrich taking on Obama in seven (not gonna happen) Lincoln-Douglas debates sends conservative hearts aflutter. Gingrich providing bold, substantive answers in the normal three presidential debates sounds pretty good. Gingrich whining during the debates that Obama’s ads are lies is a nightmare.

Each time Gingrich gets a lead, he acts as if it is his divine right to hold that position, assuming negative ads are the only thing keeping him from his destiny. Well before the television, telephone, telegraph, or any modern forms of communication, the likes of John Adams had to deal with primeval political attacks. As long as Newt continues to react as though he is the first candidate in recorded history to face questionable advertising, he will ensure he continues to need to rise from the dead.

Now that Romney has officially sanctioned momentum and faces a seemingly very favorable February schedule, the evidence of the past few months favors Gingrich. This is not to suggest he will win Nevada or any of the upcoming caucuses. However, Newt apparently only functions when being issued political Last Rites, so his next recovery is just a couple disappointing third place finishes away.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are at the ready to help with this endeavor. Paul is virtually certain to finish ahead of Gingrich in Maine and several other caucuses (perhaps not Nevada–that one is really tricky to estimate). Santorum is going to get his chance in the next couple weeks, despite finishing a very distant third in Florida, he received some of the praise a candidate would normally need more votes to receive.

Romney is still the most likely nominee; Santorum only cleared 20% in Iowa, Paul is not a nomination possibility, and Gingrich appears as though he will never manage to maintain momentum for more than a few minutes. However, this isn’t over yet. None of the non-Romneys have a path to 50.01% of the delegates yet, but they do still have the ability to keep Romney from winning a majority. In the meanwhile, if Santorum wins Michigan, or Gingrich wins a state outside the South (and environs), a path could open quickly.

-Evan Dodge

Related Items:

Florida Primary Blog: Santorum Sunshine State Surprise

Rush to Judgment: Newt’s Big Night

Florida Primary Blog: Fickle Florida