If pundits can agree on anything it’s that predicting the weather is easier than the 2012 Republican primary season. One debate took Mitt Romney from presumptive nominee to vulnerable candidate. He even managed to lose Iowa two weeks after he won it. If you can’t even trust election night results, and Newt Gingrich can turn a 10 point deficit into a 12 point win in five days, what can you trust?
Absolutely nothing. That won’t stop me from making the following assertions about the coming Sunshine State Political Apocalypse:
Rick Santorum will do very well. This doesn’t mean he will win, or even finish second, though both are very possible. A close third place finish, one within 10-12% of the leader and where he registers at least 25% of the vote will exceed expectations and make it very difficult to argue Santorum should drop out.
Post-Iowa, Santorum went from non-existent to 16% in Florida polls. After giving up a few points, the most recent CNN survey had him at 19%. If you take his Real Clear Politics average of 15%, he starts from a decent floor, only 10 points away from a solid result. There are a number of reasons to expect him to make up that gap and then some.
1. Ron Paul is not making a big push in Florida. You might wonder what Ron Paul could possibly have to do with Rick Santorum, isn’t Gingrich his big obstacle? Paul is the candidate who spends the most time attacking Santorum, both in debates and in ads. Paul is focusing his attentions on the upcoming Nevada Caucus, where his dollars and enthusiastic base will bring better results. This eliminates the most likely source of anti-Santorum bile.
2. We know the Romney campaign will let Gingrich have everything they’ve got. We know Newt will respond. When two candidates are dueling, a third usually benefits. With Paul out of the picture, there’s only one possible beneficiary. Santorum has generally high favorabilty ratings among Republican voters. He is a potential second choice for Romney voters who can’t stomach Gingrich and Gingrich voters who question Romney’s willingness to fight.
3. The two debates are a great opportunity. Everyone agrees debates are insanely important this cycle, but given the cost of paid media in Florida, and general fickleness of the electorate this is even more true. As well as Newt does, his best moments are usually when he is not in a lead position and forced to fend off attacks from other candidates. After what happened to Juan Williams on Monday and John King on Thursday, this week’s group of questioners are likely to avoid giving Newt a fat pitch to hit out of the park.
Romney will have to deal with questions about his tax returns, Newt is sure to face new queries about his Freddie Mac consulting. Santorum does not have an equivalent weak spot. While his explanation on voting against right-to-work legislation leaves something to be desired (and bears a strong resemblance to Mitt’s answer on Romneycare), he will have more time to play offense and have fewer defensive worries.
Mitt Romney is in serious, serious danger. Mind you, two weeks before Iowa voted, there was an outside chance Romney could have finished a devastating fourth; instead he had a temporary win. With up to 200,000 absentee ballots already in, Romney received plenty of Florida votes while he was still Mr. Inevitable. There is still every chance Romney will win Florida and move to Nevada (a state he won in 2008) with plenty of momentum.
However, he can also finish third. It would be a very close third, as there is no chance Romney will fall below his 25% national floor. In 2008, Romney won 31% of the Florida primary vote. Even if you assume removing the Inevitability Cloak will harm him tremendously, with some votes already in, 28% is probably the approximate minimum. That still would leave at least 60% for Gingrich and Santorum to split (remember, they combined for 57% in South Carolina), making it possible for both to exceed him.
Romney can either make a very strong argument for himself or against Gingrich. As Newt himself learned over the past couple weeks, you can only do one or the other, the news cycle will only allow one meme per candidate. Shifting to making his own case through aggressively confronting the media, the pro-Newt message did what the anti-Mitt couldn’t. The Gingrich recovery was directly linked to the switch in focus.
While it is very tempting to suggest Romney needs to stop Gingrich now, before he builds more momentum, focusing on the very negatives Newt was unable to quash in Iowa, Romney needs to make a case for himself instead. If he goes positive, there is a decent chance Newt will win Florida. If he goes negative, there is a decent chance Santorum will finish ahead of Romney. The first is an obstacle, but one that is surmountable, given Newt’s proclivity for self-destruction and Romney’s organizational advantage and presence on more primary ballots.
Losing to Santorum in Florida, whether the order of finish is 1/2 or 2/3 would destroy the remaining shards of front-runnerdom. Republicans want someone who will provide a strong contrast with President Obama. Each candidate recognizes this and mentions it constantly. They need to show, not just tell. When Gingrich said he was a better anti-Obama than Romney, nobody cared. When he replicated Sherman’s March through the moderators, he made his point.
When Romney attacked Gingrich in Iowa, Newt lost time (and got stomped in New Hampshire) complaining about the attacks. It took over two weeks to shake off the hit and direct his anger at the moderators. Romney does not have time to waste talking about Newt’s attacks on Bain Capital, saying that Gingrich isn’t a suitable defender of the free market.
Instead, he needs to make a stronger anti-Obama case on the economy, ideally focusing heavily on the recently rejected Keystone pipeline extension. Fewer platitudes and more specificity would help. Voters need to hear the debate lines that would harm the president and sound bites that will make them feel good about having Romney as their champion in the fall. Raising doubts about Newt without satisfying doubts about Romney will only benefit Santorum.
Newt Gingrich will finish with between 23% and 43% of the vote. I have no idea how Newt will do. All the momentum in the world is on his side. Two more debates give him a chance to shine. Floridians loved him six weeks ago, pushing him to an enormous lead in post-Thanksgiving polling. Gingrich does very well with senior citizens, who turn out disproportionately in primaries. I hear they have a few older voters in Florida.
On the other hand, he still hasn’t adequately answered for his Freddie Mac involvement (something Team Romney is telegraphing their intention to focus on), will face renewed heckling from parts of the conservative establishment (like the National Review, not just from Bush 41 Republicans), and has a 20 year history of being unable to stand prosperity. Newt is at his best when things look bleak and his worst when they look promising.
Almost anything is possible in Florida. Romney could restore order, exit the Sunshine State as the front-runner, with Newt as the main non-Romney challenger. Gingrich could win by double-digits and seem like a solid front-runner himself. Newt could implode in a hail of hubris. Romney could disintegrate now that he is visibly vulnerable.
Santorum exceeding expectations and proving he has a place in the race is the only thing I’m fairly sure of.
-Evan Dodge
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