January 21, 14:30 ET
If the present trends hold (and I think they will), New Newt will defeat Angry Newt to win the South Carolina Primary, completing one of the more striking comebacks in recent political history (though only Newt’s 2nd best comeback in the past six months).
When the ballots are finally tallied, I suspect the end result will resemble this:
Newt Gingrich 36%
Mitt Romney 32%
Rick Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 15%
Assuming Gingrich hangs on we will have gone from one of the more somnolent primary races (if Romney continued his early momentum and won South Carolina by several points) to one of the more unpredictable. To make things even more tricky, narrative usually trumps reality, so perceptions of strength, momentum and success are more important than how well a candidate actually did.
If the above prediction is farily close to reality, it will actually mean:
Gingrich overcame himself to score about as well as you might have figured a few weeks ago. This was always Newt’s must-win primary. If he couldn’t win in South Carolina, he wasn’t going to win anywhere. The only possible exception was a scenario where Rick Perry was a stronger candidate, stayed in the race and split the conservative vote, allowing Romney to win narrowly. With Perry out, anything below the low 30s is a failure, and he needs to reach 38-40% to claim he actually outperformed.
This should take nothing away from what Newt accomplished in Monday’s debate and how effectively he used John King as a punching bag on Thursday. Few serious presidential candidates have the hubris to act as their own campaign strategist and do interviews where they sound like a strategist instead of a candidate. I’m positive that is not a good idea and contributed to the lack of success in playing the Bain Card.
Fortunately, Gingrich the strategist has Newt the debater to save him. You can even make the argument that he made it possible, falling far enough behind going into the debate to keep the focus on Romney, giving Newt more opportunity to make the type of comments that win debates for him. Thursday’s debate was rougher, with Gingrich suddenly a target again. The venom over King’s question and the excellent sound bites from it obstructed some of the shots Santorum delivered during the debate and obscured that it was actually a difficult debate for Newt.
Romney actually did very well, finishing near the top of his range. Unless he surprises everyone, grabs over 35% of the vote and wins, you’ll hear this presented as a big loss for Romney. It is actually his best performance so far. Yes, on Monday afternoon it seemed like he would win by several points, but that was due to several bits of luck:
1. Huntsman dropped out, giving Romney a potentially important cushion of 2-4%.
2. Perry was still in the race, depriving Gingrich of a similar cushion.
3. Newt was doing his best to get Romney nominated, forcing Rush Limbaugh and other Romneyphobes to defend Romney.
Newt managed to reverse all of this in less than two hours, with a final assist later in the week from ABC News, CNN and his 2nd ex-wife. Romney picked a bad time for a bad debate performance, but I’m not sure this actually mattered very much. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney will do far better in South Carolina in 2012 than 2008, despite facing a potentially more difficult playing field.
In Iowa, Romney finished with almost exactly the same vote count as 4 years ago. In 2008 Mike Huckabee consolidated most social conservatives and finished several points ahead. This time, Santorum had to share with Michele Bachmann and Perry and only began building momentum in the final couple weeks, so the finish was (to say the least) closer. Romney was Romney, a solid finish, with the other candidates determining how well his 25% would hold up.
In New Hampshire, Romney finished several points ahead of his 2008 result. However, instead of competing against John McCain, once considered New Hampshire’s 3rd Senator, he was endorsed by him. In a stronger field, with a local favorite for a main rival, he pulled 32%. Against the ineffectual Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul, Romney received 39%. Not bad, but not super-impressive.
Whether he finishes toward the lower end of his projected range at 28% or the higher end at 33-34%, Romney will have approximately doubled his 2008 result, despite facing arguably tougher competition. Huckabee finished ahead of Romney by almost 20 points in 2008; Romney will likely finish well ahead of Santorum this year. Gingrich will finish with about the same percentage as McCain in 2008, despite having more of a home-field advantage.
In 2008, Romney finished behind conservative underacheiver Fred Thompson, in 2012, conservative underachiever Rick Perry dropped out ahead of the vote. No matter how you look at it, South Carolina is the first state wheere Romney dramatically improved on his 2008 results. Despite that fact, the narrative will frame Romney as a loser. With Iowa now in the Santorum column, the trendy comment will mention the supposed front-runner has only won one of the first three contests, that one in his virtual home state.
Given how fickle Florida is, the next fun for Romney is hearing how his huge Florida lead has vaporized. This is not a firewall for Romney. Though his considerable organizing efforts, infrastructure and funding advantage give him an advantage, the immediate narrative will focus on Gingrich making up 20 points in Florida polls in less than a week. If Newt wins tonight, he’ll be ahead in Florida as long as he has a decent debate on Monday.
Given that Gingrich is a better underdog than favorite, this isn’t necessarily horrible for Romney, but get ready to hear about how the wheels are coming off a candidacy that is actually performing as well as could have been expected. Gingrich was pushing 50% in Florida polls taken right after Thanksgiving. A surge now is not a rejection of Romney.
Santorum has plenty of time. This is completely dependent on finishing above the Pauldoza Line. If Santorum can finish third, he has plenty of reason to stick around to see how he can do in the Michigan and Ohio primaries. Every point Santorum makes about his viability or right to stay in the race is correct. He finished well ahead of Gingrich in Iowa, even with him in New Hampshire. If Newt wins South Carolina and approximately doubles Santorum’s total, they will be virtually even through three states.
Each of the three main contenders would have won a single early state. A Gingrich victory in South Carolina would prove it was possible to beat Romney without facing him one-on-one, reducing the need for all conservatives to unite behind a single non-Romney before determining who the best non-Romney is.
With Newt still persona non grata in many conservative establishment circles, Santorum will receive plenty of support to stick around. Some will hope Gingrich eventually implodes and Santorum can replace him as the leading non-Romney. Others would happily settle for Romney and hope Santorum will keep votes away from Newt. Either way, Santorum can count on assistance heading forward, as long as he finishes ahead of Paul and with a respectable 15% or more of the vote.
The big challenge for Santorum is himself. He’s a fighter, and many people like that. He doesn’t give up easily, and many people like that even more. Unfortunately, he also has the habit of sounding whiny when he feels overlooked or marginalized. When he gave his Iowa victory speech, Santorum sounded confident and like a legitimate contender. His debating skills are solid and he does a good job taking Romney and Gingrich on directly.
When Newt finished a distant fourth in Iowa and roughly tied for fourth in New Hampshire and headed to South Carolina with a bad strategy, he survived by considering himself an important contender, regardless of whatever anyone else said. Rather than trying to convince others that he mattters, Santorum should focus on keeping that to himself and projecting it outward through his general attitude rather than words.
He has every reason to stick around. Romney has not sold the rank-and-file on his candidacy yet, Gingrich is several steps beyond unpredictable. Paul is not going to be nominated. The more Santorum acts like he belongs, the more chance he has of pulling out a nomination that is not as improbable as analysts will make it sound tonight (assuming he finishes ahead of Paul).
Ron Paul did very well in South Carolina. This is true even if Paul finishes fourth with 13-14% of the vote. If he finishes third with closer to 17-19%, it’s a huge success. In Iowa, Paul doubled his 2008 result, in New Hampshire, he almost tripled. Even at the low end of his projection for tonight, Paul is likely to triple his 2008 result. If he gets to the upper end, it quadruples. That would represent a ton of below-the-radar momentum and mean he can do some real damage in some of the smaller caucuses going forward.
Running on an anti-war platform in one of the most military-heavy states, Paul made some good progress before fading a little bit the last few days, as he shifted some of his focus to the upcoming Nevada Caucus. You might not hear much about his performance tonight, but that shouldn’t take away from how well he actually did. While Paul won’t get nominated, he can win enough delegates to block the others from clinching the nomination ahead of the convention.
Unless Romney wins, which the media would correctly interpret as a huge victory for him, expect the narrative to wind up 180 degrees away from the underlying truth. South Carolina was always Newt’s to lose and difficult terrain for Romney and Paul. Santorum is just getting started. We are likely in for a wild few months, where nothing is how it appears.
-Evan Dodge
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AS usual, you know the numbers as well as the story behind the story. There is really a lot issues to cover in the coming weeks. Thanks for analyzing the ups and downs of each candidate. One question. Do you think the issue over the releasing of taxes made any difference in the results tonight?
Yes. It wasn’t that he hasn’t released the taxes, it’s that he gave a weak answer. He should have either released them or said none of your damn business.