On the morning of December 11, Mitt Romney was in trouble. It looked like his $10,000 bet was the Gaffe heard Around the World. Newt Gingrich was ahead in every imaginable non-New Hampshire poll. Mitt’s minions were beginning to take shots at Newt’s temperament, management skills, baggage, etc., but it didn’t look like Republican voters were getting the message just yet.
Worst of all, the same pollsters showing Gingrich with a solid lead among the primary electorate were revealing a several point deficit to President Obama in a hypothetical fall matchup. While Romney was running fairly evenly with Obama, it was becoming increasingly possible he wouldn’t get the chance to defeat him.
If something wasn’t done immediately, Newt could win the nomination, potentially imperiling the Republican Party and conservative movement. In a worst-case scenario, he would lose, not only missing an opportunity to defeat Obama and halt/repeal Obamacare, but also ruining the chance to win back the Senate and perhaps putting the House in play.
So, the establishment struck back. From all corners, the conservative establishment aired their grievances with Gingrich. This was not a random stream of consciousness, on the order of the wary but non-committal editorials written over the previous month. Instead National Review provided Newt with an anti-endorsement, not choosing a candidate yet, but eliminating Gingrich from consideration. At the same time, the Washington Examiner endorsed Romney.
These are not isolated examples. The conservative establishment made their dissatisfaction abundantly clear. In doing this, they won a crucial battle, which makes triumph in the ultimate nomination war very possible. After running consistently in the 30-35% range in Iowa, Gingrich is now in the mid-low 20% range, still ahead or near the top (depending on poll), but very vulnerable. Romney’s lead in New Hampshire has widened.
Others are partially responsible for the change in Newt’s fortunes. Being a front-runner creates additional scrutiny. Romney himself began to attack Gingrich even before this week. Ron Paul began running anti-Newt ads weeks ago. Michele Bachmann unveiled the Newt/Romney line in the Saturday debate. However, the harsh criticism from respected conservative journals gave the charges by his opponents and the mainstream media more credibility.
Whether Gingrich arrests his slide in support, or another candidate (Perry, Bachmann, etc.) completes their comeback and moves back to the top tier, the battle between the conservative establishment and Tea Party/conservative base will continue until each side can agree on a candidate.
The base has firmly rejected Romney, and is showing few signs of changing their mind. The 25% upper limit on his support remains. On the other hand, each alternative is knocked down, with Newt looking like the latest victim. The candidate with the resume and policy positions to appeal to both (Huntsman) is doing his level best to alienate both.
Increasingly, it looks like a 1976-style knock-down, drag-out battle between activists and insiders is on the menu. However, this won’t be an exact re-run. When President Ford and Governor Reagan did battle, an incumbent president was able to completely control the party apparatus. Romney and the establishment are at a comparative disadvantage here.
On the other hand, Reagan was the single alternative. If you didn’t want Ford, there was only one other choice. Until the field narrows, each potential challenger will face fire from Romney and other contenders at the same time. While Cain imploded on his own, Perry was stuck in the same vise as Gingrich, being attacked by Romney’s surrogates and other candidates at the same time. Unsurprisingly, this tends to harm the temporary leader.
The stakes are higher this time. In 1976, Republicans wanted to retain the White House and minimize congressional losses, but winning the Senate and reversing hated legislation were not options. This time around, everyone thinks 2012 is a consequential, once-in-a-century or at least generation type of election. Both the establishment and Tea Party are worried if Obama wins a second term, America as they know it might not exist.
Another difference is the nature of the establishment. Reagan fought the Republican establishment with what would grow in to the current conservative establishment. The Republican Party had liberal/moderate and conservative wings. Now it does not. Because of what Reagan and his movement allies accomplished, this is a conservative party. It is neither as monolithically right-wing as media liberals claim, nor as squishy as some activists think, but instead a solidly conservative party.
This means the fight is a question of risk management and implementation more than ideology. Ford and Reagan had major disagreements on policy. Ford was pro-Détente, Reagan was Reagan. Ford was on board with turning over the Panama Canal, Reagan was Reagan. This was before Reagan’s conversion to supply-side economics, so he sounded more like a literate Rick Perry. Ford followed the consensus.
In this case, you can’t slide a piece of paper between the foreign policy positions of Romney and his main rivals (Paul isn’t going to happen). All are in favor of cutting taxes, cutting spending, except for defense spending. All are in favor of some form of entitlement reform.
Each side believes the other is wrong about how to bring about what they both want. The base is worried Romney will lose because he won’t draw a sharp enough contrast. The establishment fears Gingrich will turn an Obama Referendum into The Newt Show. The base is worried Romney won’t govern as a conservative. The establishment is worried Gingrich won’t govern as a conservative (or be able to govern at all). Both would prefer a new option.
This isn’t the Democratic Party in 1968, with one half supporting the Vietnam War and the other half protesting it in the streets. It’s not the 1964 or 1976 Republicans, trying to figure out if they are a conservative or moderate party. This is why we should expect a few brutal months of internecine warfare. Without needing to argue about ideology, there is plenty of time to fight over tactics and strategy
This week, the establishment proved they are just as willing to fight for their approach to removing President Obama, and completely unwilling to put control of their congressional destiny in the hands of Newt Gingrich. Game on.
-Evan Dodge
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This is a powerful article. Somehow you manage to integrate the last 40 years of political wrangling between factions of the Republican Party in a concise straight forward manner and bring to light the differences of each of the major campaigns in the Republican Party. You have distilled the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates over the last few days. What’s most frustrating to me is Huntsman’s lack of ability to be a frontrunner when he possesses all the genuine conservative platform but can’t get from under himself. Perhaps the pillars of the establishment aren’t forgiving him for joining Obama in foreign endeavors in China. Whatever the rub is, I think he needs an intervention by Republican insiders to get him focused going forward. Unless he is Silky Sullivan and plans to take charge in the last few furlongs of the race for the nomination, he will soon be unable to break out of the pack.
Ron Paul has 10 months to make the case to republicans that we can’t afford endless war and it doesn’t make us safer. It can be done
I seem to remember Paul has no major objection to real “defense” spending such as domestic missile defense. If he were to make a bigger deal out of the protective measures he is ok with, particularly with regard to how to protect the borders from someone walking a nuke in, without needing to resort to a fence, it would be a much easier sell.